Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 122.212526 140.614307 161.511541 187.136481 217.897305 253.867550 299.452860
2025-12-21 97.531673 120.425371 148.804750 187.051395 237.992396 304.583778 400.039677
2025-12-28 86.447419 112.713012 147.585311 198.307588 271.984153 378.036962 547.912283
2026-01-04 77.909154 106.080710 145.610771 206.848391 302.593161 452.537682 718.215055
2026-01-11 71.015105 100.249149 143.225273 213.507085 330.741790 528.878499 914.674107
2026-01-18 64.660987 94.081917 139.068544 216.147484 352.238895 598.559880 1122.065244
2026-01-25 58.922655 87.978436 133.939004 215.963917 368.308808 661.800324 1338.923712
2026-02-01 53.243127 81.223664 126.755890 210.871914 374.056101 706.116450 1531.047685
2026-02-08 48.390634 75.239562 120.048577 205.447625 377.852951 747.009229 1731.154056
2026-02-15 44.334776 70.138609 114.211478 200.663320 381.831090 789.034777 1951.979117
2026-02-22 43.313013 70.069904 117.162034 213.093932 424.361352 931.500819 2525.762336
2026-03-01 40.978880 67.451681 115.146377 215.246332 444.633659 1025.653934 3005.835236
2026-03-08 39.020246 65.410763 114.150560 219.764022 472.464176 1151.724030 3689.873722
2026-03-15 36.708196 62.508120 111.188938 219.658019 489.298865 1253.985709 4366.390940
2026-03-22 36.068915 62.660177 114.230892 233.368430 544.789375 1493.814249 5843.691395
2026-03-29 35.108938 62.092623 115.732727 243.794888 594.462291 1738.325875 7631.571951
2026-04-05 33.996061 61.110806 116.243550 251.937234 640.070602 1991.590659 9816.711457
2026-04-12 32.557686 59.342072 114.867014 255.169151 672.119613 2211.274472 12142.474176
2026-04-19 30.972951 57.137004 112.298579 254.944397 693.522928 2400.468509 14592.766667
2026-04-26 29.086002 54.156777 107.708581 248.713478 694.020555 2502.109035 16547.130342
2026-05-03 27.331200 51.325281 103.197692 242.083407 691.817544 2592.586254 18613.758382
2026-05-10 25.775376 48.803722 99.171638 236.242081 691.139367 2691.931467 21023.533213
2026-05-17 25.667911 49.378133 102.420742 251.431662 770.562636 3244.921880 30262.070379